Ten Crucial Trends

Whoa. “Crucial Trends for 2010.” So says Trendwatch’s recent pronouncement, which looks into their crystal ball to see what’s up or down or sideways next year.

Here you go . . .

1. Business as Unusual: They say our current problems are less about the recession and more about the “societal changes” set in motion in recent years. I find it hard to separate the two.

2. Urbany: Urban is the culture that leads to more sophisticated and demanding consumers. If true, urban would mean less sophisticated and more jaded. Also, explain why country fans buy more music and dominate the radio waves, and yet they’ll be subordinate to the “urbans”???

3. Real-Time Reviews: Whatever you’re buying or selling, it will be reviewed “en masse.” One of the great nightmares of the Internet comes of age—a megaphone for people who don’t know what they’re talking about, or worse, have the taste of Judd Apatow.

4. (F)Luxury: Status is becoming fragmented, luxury is whatever we want it to be. Not whatever, methinks. One thing luxury will not be is ostentatious or conspicuous. The nouveau riche’s gauche tastes and the pomposity of jinged-up doyennes will never play as luxury again.

5. Mass Mingling: Online lifestyles fueling real-world meet-ups shatter perceptions about computer-bound lonely hearts. I don’t know, what’s more lonely than seeking love on a computer? Perhaps doing same in a bar or a grocery aisle, I suppose.

6. Eco-Easy: In order for us to sustain and survive eco-disasters, business will have to make it easy for consumers to be green. Pray they do that.

7. Tracking & Alerting: Countless new INFOLUST services will enable people to more completely control their desire. Can you say INFOMASTURBATE?

8. Embedded Generosity: More pragmatic and collaborative donation services coming? OK, but either you’re inclined or you’re not.

9. Profile Myning: Everyone has a profile, somewhere. Twenty-ten will bring wonderful, new ways to upgrade, enrich, and enliven your MySpace, Facebook, LinkedIn, or whatever biograph. Question: who cares?

10. Maturialism: The anything-goes online world will only get worse, with more outspoken opinionators, more raw and risqué. This is maturation?

And, there you have it folks, 2010 in a nutshell. Lots and lots to look forward to.

More than we can say for 2012!

Pretty Lights

I have a young friend who composes music. He’s still in college but is an accomplished player and has really developed a talent for writing techno music, with a twist. He sends me downloads of his stuff, which is rather nice. I am humbled that he would want me to listen to it.

The last time we were giving it a go, I wasn’t catching the groove entirely. So he went into his iTunes library and called up the poster child in his techno genre. I thought his stuff matched up quite well with the seasoned pro’s output. He said he’d e-mailed the guy, sending along a couple cuts.

Amazingly, the guy responded saying he thought the kid’s music was pretty good. He emphasized he was not blowing smoke up my friend’s ass, and that he should keep writing because something good will come of it. He pointed out that he hears a lot of music, and very little of it is much good—my friend’s compositions being a rare exception.

Needless to say, the kid was on cloud nine as he recounted the experience, saying his hero was coming to town for a gig. I suggested he send the guy another note to see if they could hook up while he was in town. You never know, right??

Well! That’s exactly what he did, requesting an audience before the concert. The guy told him to meet in front of the performance hall at 3 p.m. They met, they talked for two hours in the band bus, and the guy gave the kid a backstage pass. They hung out until 4 a.m. talking music.

Lots of lessons here, not the least of which is, if you want something bad enough you have to go for it. Jump outside the comfort zone. My friend asked for a meet-up, and he got it. What would have happened had he not done so? I can tell you . . . absolutely nothing.

On the other side of the coin, it was remarkably generous of the established star to take the time to mentor and encourage a young kid.

Remember that the next time some college grad calls you for an informational interview.

Just a Click Away

Jon Gibbs, VP of media analytics at The Nielsen Company recently wrote an article for nielsenwire titled “Online Advertising Grows Up.” He makes a case for how the Internet is being taken “seriously,” citing the creation of Hulu by Fox and NBC, Google’s phenomenal track record with online advertising, Apple’s reshaping of the music industry with iTunes, and the growing metroplex we call Facebook. Excellent examples, all.

But he asks, “If the Internet has truly ‘arrived’ and is being taken seriously, why have we not yet seen significant brand advertising dollars follow?”

Well, Jon, I’m no expert but I’ll give you my reason. The old 800–pound gorilla . . .

Clickability.

Now that advertisers know how many consumers have clicked on their Web ad, they’re not exactly bowled over by the results. Frankly, I don’t know what they expected. Click rates of 0.5 percent are not all that uncommon. Indeed, click rates very much resemble direct-mail return rates, and frankly it makes sense.

What I don’t understand is why legacy media hasn’t done more research to determine if those low click rates are indigenous to the Web. Newspapers, magazines, radio, and television have a long history of handing the baton off to the advertiser once their audience has been successfully sold. It was up to the advertiser to create a compelling message to generate response.

For Web sites, the onus for response rests squarely on their own shoulders. Basically, because it can. Advertisers are more than happy to hang the Web site out to dry if the response isn’t adequate. They would have done it with legacy media, but advertisers had no metric to know for sure.

It may be the Web’s ultimate undoing—a failure to monetize itself. Ironic that what was touted as the grail for advertisers is fast becoming a tin cup.

So much for transparency.

Drinking the Kool-Aid

I hate Kool-Aid. It’s nothing but sugar and artificial flavoring. Not good for you, rots your teeth, creates wacky glycemic imbalances, makes your tongue red or green or whatever.

I hate the other version of Kool-Aid too, i.e., that libation that once you drink, it forever brands you a zealot. A Manichean. A card-carrying nut ball, spewing foam-at-the-mouth diatribes either for or against your chosen Kool-Aid flavor.

I drink no one’s Kool-Aid. That’s for the weak minded and the lazy. I am not an absolutist. I seek reasoned positions. Let’s go lofty . . . an Aristotelian, “for the common good.”

I get a little hot when someone accuses me of drinking the Kool-Aid. I wrote a post recounting the things Obama’s got that Bush ain’t. So, now all of a sudden I’m drinking the Obama Kool-Aid.

Nothing could be further from that flitting hummingbird of truth.

What’s wrong with you people? How can the mere mention of a man’s name set you off like that? You need help. You’re the one’s slurping the Kool-Aid . . . not me.

Five Things Obama Has…

(that Bush didn’t).

1. His intelligence is painfully apparent. This is one smart cookie, someone whose innate brainpower and absorption of education manifests in how he reacts and responds to everything from national calamity to an appearance on Letterman. I trust his brain. Most of his recent predecessors displayed no such ability.

2. His tough upbringing is an asset. There’s something to be said for anyone who overcomes adversity and disadvantage. In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, columnist Joe Queenan described him as “raised by a single mother and grandparents, born with no discernible financial advantages, clocked Hilary Clinton, clocked John McCain, and got himself elected the first African-American in a country that was still lynching black people when he was a child.” He has the right stuff, possessing the creativity, willpower, and moxie to rise above difficult circumstances. Understanding that, for some, life’s challenges are invisible, Obama’s clear path to achievement is impressive.

3. He has good chemistry. Obama is a natural. He projects it in every move he makes and every step he takes. Forgetting politics, there are very few presidents since Kennedy who felt this right. I have a new nominee for The Great Communicator.

4. He sees the problems. Better, he is willing to address them head on, forgetting ideology and politics (as much as that is possible). This presidency is less about Obama and more about America.

5. He speaks English. I understand what he says. He doesn’t fumble with language. He is articulate and direct, even without a teleprompter.

Admittedly these five attributes won’t, in and of themselves, get us to the Promised Land, but they definitely improve the odds.